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Forecasting California’s Earthquakes

What Can We Expect in the Next 30 Years?

In a new comprehensive study, scientists have determined that the chance of having one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes in the California area over the next 30 years is greater than 99%. Such quakes can be deadly, as shown by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta and the 1994 magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquakes. The likelihood of at least one even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%—such a quake is most likely to occur in the southern half of the State. Building codes, earthquake insurance, and emergency planning will be affected by these new results, which highlight the urgency to prepare now for the powerful quakes that are inevitable in California’s future.

USGS » Forecasting California’s Earthquakes
What Can We Expect in the Next 30 Years?
2008 / PDF / 4 pages / 1.7mb

The Hayward Fault

Is It Due for a Repeat of the Powerful 1868 Earthquake?

On October 21, 1868, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay region. Although the region was then sparsely populated, this quake on the Hayward Fault was one of the most destructive in California’s history. Recent studies show that such powerful Hayward Fault quakes have repeatedly jolted the region in the past. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists describe this fault as a tectonic time bomb, due anytime for another magnitude 6.8 to 7.0 earthquake. Because such a quake could cause hundreds of deaths, leave thousands homeless, and devastate the region’s economy, the USGS and other organizations are working together with new urgency to help prepare Bay Area communities for this certain future quake.

USGS » The Hayward Fault
Is It Due for a Repeat of the Powerful 1868 Earthquake?
2008 / PDF / 4 pages / 1.7mb

The Coming Bay Area Earthquake

2010 Update of Scenario for a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake on the Hayward Fault

At the 1995 Annual Meeting of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI), a day-long symposium addressed the challenges of a major urban earthquake. Sixteen presenters discussed aspects of a Hayward fault earthquake, from its seismology to its social and economic impacts on the San Francisco Bay Area. The symposium presentations were subsequently published in Scenario for a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake on the Hayward Fault.

EERI » The Coming Bay Area Earthquake
2010 Update of Scenario for a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake on the Hayward Fault
2010 / PDF / 115 pages / 3.5mb

Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country

Your Handbook for the San Francisco Bay Region

This handbook provides information about the threat posed by earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region and explains how you can prepare for, survive, and recover from these inevitable events. If you live or work in the region, you need to know why you should be concerned with earthquakes, what you can expect during and after a quake, and what you need to do beforehand to be safe and reduce damage.

This may be one of the best, most complete and up to date public information booklets available.

USGS » Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country
Your Handbook for the San Francisco Bay Region
2007 / PDF / 32 pages / 6mb

Get Ready Marin

DISASTER PREPAREDNESS MANUAL

The guide has been designed to help the citizens of Marin County learn how to protect themselves and their families against all types of hazards. It can be used as a reference source or as a step-by-step manual. The focus of the content is on how to develop, practice, and maintain emergency plans that reflect what must be done before, during, and after a disaster to protect people and their property. Also included is information on how to assemble a disaster supplies kit that contains the food, water, and other supplies in sufficient quantity for individuals and their families to survive following a disaster in the event they must rely on their own resources.

Get Ready Marin Disaster Manual
Disaster Preparedness Manual
2007 / PDF / 57 pages / 16.6mb

Protecting Your Family From Earthquakes

The Seven Steps to Earthquake Safety
Part of the Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country Series

This handbook is a multilingual, abridged version of Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country. It is available in two editions: English and Spanish; and English, Chinese, Vietnamese, and Korean. It is provided here because of the importance of preparing for earthquakes before they happen. Experts say it is very likely there will be a damaging San Francisco Bay Area earthquake in the next 30 years and that it will strike without warning. It may be hard to find the supplies and services we need after this earthquake. You will need to provide for your family until help arrives. To keep our loved ones and our community safe, we must prepare now.

Protecting Your Family From Earthquakes
The Seven Steps to Earthquake Safety
2007 / PDF / 24 pages / 1.7mb

Homeowner’s Guide to Earthquake Safety

This booklet describes the most common weaknesses that can cause damage to homes during earthquakes.

The 2005 edition of the "Homeowner’s Guide to Earthquake Safety" is an excellent source of earthquake preparedness information for homeowners and others, especially as it is written in non-technical "what-to-do" and "how-to-do-it" language. Distribution of the 50 page booklet is required by law to purchasers of California homes built before 1960. We recommend it to anyone living in a home built before the mid 1980s when both the Building Code and standard construction practice began to include many new seismic standards.

Homeowner’s Guide to Earthquake Safety
2005 / PDF / 53 pages / 5.5mb

The Case of Hillside Homes in Los Angeles

Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER)

The Northridge earthquake of 1994 created a surprising amount of damage to homes located on the hillsides of Los Angeles. Of approximately 10,000 hillside homes, 374 were damaged, some severely. This report examines three different representations of the decision to improve the earthquake safety of hillside homes.

Framing Earthquake Retrofitting Decisions:
The Case of Hillside Homes in Los Angeles
PEER 2000/03
2000 / PDF / 44 pages / 1.5mb