Forecasting California’s Earthquakes
California has more than a 99% chance of having a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake within the next 30 years, according to scientists using a new model to determine the probability of big quakes.
For northern California, the most likely source of such earthquakes is the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault (31% in the next 30 years). Such quakes can be deadly, as shown by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta and the 1994 magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquakes.
The new study determined the probabilities that different parts of California will experience earthquake ruptures of various magnitudes. The new statewide probabilities are the result of a model that comprehensively combines information from seismology, earthquake geology, and geodesy (measuring precise locations on the Earth's surface). For the first time, probabilities for California having a large earthquake in the next 30 years can be forecast statewide.
For Additional Information:
SCEC » A New Forecast of California Earthquakes
The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities forecast
USGS » Forecasting California’s Earthquakes
What Can We Expect in the Next 30 Years?
PDF / 4 pages / 1.7mb
Source: SCEC, USGS, CGS and CEA
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Huge state quake predicted within 30 years
“SAN FRANCISCO A strong and deadly earthquake is virtually certain to strike on one of California's major seismic faults within the next 30 years, scientists said Monday in the first official forecast of statewide earthquake probabilities.
They calculated the probability at more than 99 percent that one or more of the major faults in the state will rupture and trigger a quake with a magnitude of at least 6.7.”
David Perlman, Chronicle Science Editor
Friday, March 21, 2008
Next big quake could be worse than 1906
“The next major earthquake on the Hayward Fault - inevitable anytime now, experts say - will be the Bay Area's own Hurricane Katrina, affecting more than 5 million people, causing losses to homes and businesses of at least $165 billion and total economic losses of more than $1.5 trillion, scientists warn.
The analysis came from the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, from Risk Management Solutions, a scientific and engineering firm in Newark, and from the Association of Bay Area Governments. Their view of the past and future was sobering. Records and geologic trenching show that five major quakes struck along the Hayward Fault between 1315 and 1868 - an average of one every 140 years. The 140th anniversary of the last big one falls on Oct. 21.”
David Perlman, Chronicle Science Editor
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Hayward, Calaveras faults may be connected, geologist says
“Earth scientists have long branded the Hayward Fault the Bay Area's deadliest, where a truly “Big One” is inevitable at some unforeseen time.
But new seismic research indicates that the Hayward and its neighboring fault, the Calaveras, might be connected underground to make them, in effect, a single and even more dangerous fault.”
David Perlman, Chronicle Science Editor
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
New studies presented of Hayward fault
“SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) — The U.S. Geological Survey says that the Hayward fault is regarded as one of the most hazardous faults in Northern California.”
October 18, 2007
Scientists Anticipate Big Hayward Fault Quake Soon
“MENLO PARK (BCN) — On the 18th anniversary of the Loma Prieta earthquake that shook the Bay Area in 1989, the U.S. Geological Society Wednesday released a new map that shows the shaking produced by the 1868 Hayward earthquake.”
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Hayward Fault is our deadliest - a 'tectonic time bomb'
“The "shake map" of the devastating 1868 quake, which scientists now believe was about 7 in magnitude, provides a dramatic glimpse at the damage and size of the nation's 12th-deadliest earthquake.”
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